An interview with a retired Japanese Air Force rear admiral:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2005/10/31/2003278138
The admiral believes that an outright invasion of Taiwan from China would fail because China couldn’t control the sea lanes between the two countries for logistical support for the troops it would land. He also thinks that a blockade would fail, because Chinese submarines are easy to detect.
Needless to say, he predicates these outcomes upon intervention by America and Japan on the side of the Taiwanese.
UPDATE (Nov 17/05): Interestingly, the former Japanese officer doesn’t feel that the 8 submarines President Bush offered to Taiwan are needed. Wretchard at The Belmont Club disagrees, and thinks they’re crucial.
Interesting article, and I agree that the PLA does not have the ability to conduct a D-Day style invasion. But do they need to?
Most war scenarios that I’ve read have the PLA blockaiding Taiwan. In fact, all they really have to do is announce a blockaide and the Taiwanese economy is put on hold.
Now, if the US and Japanese navies sink enough PLA ships, they’ll have to call it off. But the question is speed; will Taiwan agree to a “settlement” before we arrive? I certainly hope not, but one fears.
Redhunter,
Since you’re the first person to comment here, I’d like to welcome you to the site here and now.
While invasion or blockade are the two most discussed scenarios for a Chinese takeover, I think there are at least three other possibilities:
1) Slow seduction of influential Taiwanese interest groups. This is otherwise known here as the “United Front” tactic.
2) The KMT deliberately leaves Taiwan defenseless, then sues for peace. (see my posts, “KMT Blocks the Special Arms Bill for the 36th Time” and “The Special Arms Bill”)
3) A KMT attack on Japan, with the intent being to draw Taiwan and China into an alliance. (see the post, “Mayor Ma Bashes Japan…Again”. BTW, Mayor Ma is the new chairman of the KMT party.)