Month: April 2006

Inflation Blues

Hey Mr. President
All you congressmen, too
You got me frustrated
And I don’t know what to do
I’m trying to make a living
I can’t save a cent
It takes all of my money
Just to eat and pay my rent
I got the blues
Got those inflation blues…

– B.B. King, Inflation Blues

About a week ago, I spoke to a Taiwanese who mentioned in passing that inflation was now a big problem in Taiwan.  I didn’t want to contradict her to her face, but I was puzzled by her claim.  Because when I go shopping, I can see that the price of orange juice is unchanged, that chicken prices are about the same, and the cost of a newspaper hasn’t gone up in years.  Inflation?  What inflation?

But that’s just anecdotal evidence.  On Wednesday, the China Post wrote an editorial revealing that consumer prices of basic necessities have increased by 10% this year.  Keep in mind that this is likely an overestimate, because consumer price indices have a difficult time reflecting improvements in quality of computers and other electronic goods.  Nevertheless, it seems that at least some inflation is occurring, and the editorialists offered a few solutions.  A few of their suggestions I agreed with, but there was one howler which merits discussion:

At a time when consumer prices continue rising with surging import costs, one effective way to counter the problem is to open up the domestic market particularly to China, a country on which we still impose sweeping restrictions for its products. Allowing in much lower priced mainland products may increase competition for domestic suppliers, but it will help offset a great deal of inflation, to the advantage of the consuming public.

Shazam!  China to the rescue!  Is there any problem from which Taiwan suffers that the Communist Party of China CAN’T solve?  Rather than propose a hike in interest rates (the most effective inflation-buster known to man), the China Post calls for Taiwan to become even more dependent upon supplies from its mortal enemy.  Surely, the economic dangers of such over-reliance should have been made clear to all by China’s recent decision to cripple Taiwan’s construction industry by eliminating gravel exports. *

Still, the basic idea of reducing inflation by allowing cheaper imports into the country is fundamentally sound, once one discards the notion that China (of all countries!) should be the source.  Taiwan currently has about 25 diplomatic allies in the world, and opening its markets further to their products would both reward them for their friendship, as well as be a big help to the Taiwanese consumer.

Following this, Taiwan could also increase market access to the countries that it has military relationships with, such as America and Japan.  Numerous people have informed me of the heavy import duties levied here on imported cars in order to protect the local auto industry.  Giving the local consumer a break on the price of Fords and Toyotas would greatly outweigh the benefits from giving them a bit of cheaper Chinese agricultural produce.

But the list doesn’t end there.  What of local democracies, such as the Philippines or Thailand?  Do they not also have inexpensive exports?  What about other developing countries?  In Asia?  In Africa?  In South America? 

(Heck, if you really want to scrape the bottom of the barrel, you could think about duty-free importation from Vietnam or Laos.  Sure, they may be communist, but they don’t have 800 missiles pointed at Taiwan now, do they?)

All-in-all, I can think of at least a HUNDRED countries which Taiwan could open its markets to, and bring tangible cost-savings to the Taiwanese consumer.  And yet, for some reason, the China Post‘s sympathy begins and ends with only one – the one country in the world that has sworn to annihilate the Taiwanese government.

Forever.

* The decision also highlighted the political subservience that accompanies economic dependence on Communist China as well.  A Taiwan News editorial notes:

…the chairman for the Taiwan National Construction Engineers Industrial Association [said that since] the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China clearly stated…Taiwan was an inseparable territory of China and not a "foreign country," the supply of Chinese gravel to Taiwan should [therefore] not be interrupted. (emphasis added)

"We’re part of Communist China, always were.  So please, please, please, give us our gravel!" the slavish Taiwanese construction leader cried.

And the China Post‘s response?  Taiwan should just be a good little province and tighten the noose around its neck even further.

UPDATE (May 10/06):  Just noticed that the price of bottled water that I usually buy here has risen from 22 to 25 New Taiwanese dollars.

I also noticed that President Chen and Central American governments are discussing free trade agreements with each other.  An agreement with Guatemala may be concluded this month, and one with El Salvador may be signed in October.  (From Chen talks FTAs with leaders of Central America from the May 9th Taiwan News.  Sorry, no link is available.)  Chen also announced that Paraguayan beef import quotas would be doubled, from 220 to 440 metric tons per year.

It seems then, that there is room for the Taiwanese government to help out the consumer, without following the China Post‘s advice of hitching an economic ride with Communist hatchet murderers.

New Search Engine

Added the Sphere Search Engine to the sidebar last night and decided to give it a try.  Typed in "Chiang Kai-Shek statues" and came up with…

Zip.

A whole lotta nothin’.

Man, that’s just pitiful!  Last month, I wrote four or five posts about the abortive attempt to remove Chiang Kai-Shek statues from Taiwanese military bases.  Needless to say, THAT search engine goes.

Then I tried out the Rollyo Search Engine.  It’s set to preferentially search about 10 websites, and now I’ve got the opposite problem.  Three PAGES of redundant links to my blog alone.

Ugh.  I suppose it’s better than nothing, so I’ll leave it up for now.  Let me know if any of you find it useful.

Fingerprinting

Part of me HATES stuff like this:

The [Taiwanese] Ministry of Justice said yesterday the requirement for visitors from China to have their fingerprints taken upon arrival should be implemented as soon as possible.

[…]

At present, certain categories of Chinese citizens, including professionals and technicians, can visit Taiwan. The newly revised statute on cross-strait exchanges requires fingerprinting for them, but the requirement has not been implemented because some complementary measures have yet to be fleshed out.

As the government is preparing to open the door for ordinary Chinese citizens to sightsee in Taiwan, the officials said they will push for a further law revision to require fingerprinting for Chinese tourists as well as Chinese fishery workers aboard Taiwanese fishing boats and seized illegal Chinese immigrants.

Unfortunately however, I don’t see how Taiwan can afford to be laissez faire about a million prospective tourists from a hostile foreign country flooding onto its shores.  Taiwan and China don’t share criminal dossiers, and the two countries have no extradition treaty.  What a terrific opportunity for China’s criminal element!

But let’s leave concerns about crime aside.  How would America have reacted if the Soviets had allowed 10 million of their citizens to visit PER YEAR?  Sure, on the one hand, a lot of those tourists would have gone home knowing that America wasn’t the demon that the communist propaganda mill was making it out to be.  But on the other hand, the possiblilities for breaches in national security might well have been intolerable.  Here in our time, it’s safe to say that there are plenty of young men from Muslim countries that would absolutely LOVE to visit America.  However, for some reason or another, they haven’t exactly been welcomed with open arms lately.  Ever wonder why THAT is?

So yeah, the libertarian in me has pretty strong reservations about fingerprinting tourists, whatever their national origin.  But the conservative in me, well, he can’t find it in himself to work up much outrage.  Because THAT guy’s of the opinion that if somebody wants to be treated like a friend, then they’d better damn well be willing to act like one.

UPDATE (Apr 28/06):  A KMT legislator suggested that other nationalities also be fingerprinted – in the interest of "impartiality".

Why stop there, Mr. Wizard?  Maybe Taiwan’s armed forces should begin training for a possible Lithuanian invasion.  In the interest of impartiality, of course.

A Few Links

Apologies to those who’ve visited the site only to find no new posts for the last six days.  Haven’t been particularly busy lately, just super tired.  Anyways, ran into a few China-related links on the Weekly Standard and thought I’d post them for your perusal.

China’s Emerging Military (a short piece about a 187 page study by the Rand Corporation)

The Seinfeld Summit

Confucious Say – Caveat Emptor

Talk amongst yourselves.  It’s nap time for me.

Taiwanese Invent New Mass Spectrometer

The Taiwan News today had an incredible story that Taiwanese scientists have developed a mass spectrometer that can identify the weight of unicellular organisms.*  Up until now, mass spectrometers could only be used to analyze compounds containing about fifty carbon atoms at most – making them useless for identifying proteins, let alone viruses or eukaryotic cells.  The story describes how the researchers did it:

…the team at Academia Sinica refined their mass spectrometer by targeting the laser on a silicon wafer to cause acoustic waves, which can "push" the cell or virus out of the sample without destroying it.

Then, a quadruple ion trap is applied to catch the subject of interest for mass determination.

The story concludes by suggesting practical applications:

…if there is an epidemic, doctors can now isolate the suspected pathogen and weigh it, then compare the weight to the entries in the database to identify what it is.

"Since the database will also show the normal weight of a particular cell, the doctor can also identify if there is cancer metastasis by noticing that the weight of certain cells are changing," [head researcher Chang Huan-Cheng] added.

What the story neglects to tell the reader is how fast the process is liable to be.  Got a sore throat?  Forget having it swabbed and then letting the lab techs spend a day or two growing up a culture in an incubator to find out what it is.  With the new mass spec, they’d merely have apply the sample to the silicon wafer and flip on the laser.  Within minutes (maybe less!), they’d know what ails you.  I’m going to guess that the time-limiting step of the procedure will end up being sample preparation.

If this isn’t some kind of hoax, then it’s literally Star Trek-level technology.

* A mass spectrometer works by ionizing a particle, and then running the ionized fragments through a magnetic device.  The weight of the fragments are then determined by the speed by which they travel through the acceleration chamber – small fragments of a given charge reach the ion detector at a faster rate than larger fragments containing the same charge.

UPDATE (Apr 26/06):  A Taiwanese government publication describes the technique (and goes a bit above my head in doing so).  The relevant material is on page 4 of the pdf file.

Left Out

What’s this?  The FE’21 Department Store in Banciao had a "Sexy Women Party" and I wasn’t invited?

Sexy women party at FE21 department store in Banciao, Taiwan

(Image from the Taipei Times.)

Now I know how Ma Ying-jeou feels.  The other day, Ma, the rookie KMT chairman, couldn’t even manage to get an invite to a meeting held by lawmakers belonging to his own political party.

That’s COLD, baby.

The April 10th meeting consisted of 20 to 30 legislators from southern districts who are unhappy with the party’s current obstructionist policies.  There, attendees discussed changing the KMT’s platform, as well as methods for directing the party towards greater moderation on the issue of legislative gridlock.  A few days afterwards, the snubbed chairman was reduced to announcing he was "happy to see legislators have opinions on the party’s affairs."

Yeah, right.  And I’m happy that all those beautiful lingerie models had a really fun time at the Sexy Women Party.

You know – the one I wasn’t invited to.

UPDATE (Apr 18/06):  Ma’s weak position as KMT chairman is discussed in further detail in a post over at One Whole Jujuflop Situation.

It is intriguing to speculate that the 20 or 30 dissatisfied KMT party backbenchers might someday be tempted to go off and form their own breakaway party.  Such a possibility should not be dismissed out of hand, because such splits have happened to the KMT before.  And not so very long ago, either.

Suffice it to say that a true status quo party in Taiwan that could cooperate with independence parties on national-security issues and oppose them on certain independence-related issues would be a positive democratic development here.  Local politicians would then be provided with an example of how positive compromise and principled opposition can occur without parties resorting to the my-way-or-the-highway political tactics that remain a legacy of the martial law era.

UPDATE (Apr 26/06):  David over at One Whole Jujuflop Situation argues persuasively that the notion of a "non-obstructionist KMT faction" is entirely chimerical.  Instead, he suggests that the 30 KMT legislators met without Ma due to self-interest; they backed another man for KMT chairman during the leadership race, and now fear that the party may now change candidacy rules for THEIR SEATS in retaliation.

It looks then, that there may not be much ground for my speculations in my April 18th update.

i-1

War Drill

Page 3 of Tuesday’s Taipei Times had a story informing us that a surprise war drill in Taiwan will be held later this month.  The purpose of the drill is not to see how fast the jets can be scrambled or the defense systems can be brought on-line; the goal is to evacuate Taiwan’s political leadership from downtown Taipei, and rehearse the strategic / political response to a Chinese attack:

According to a report in the Chinese-language newspaper the China Times, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and high-level Cabinet members will suddenly be informed later this month without warning that Chinese missiles will reach Taipei within minutes. They will be required to meet at an emergency room at the Hengshan [Mountain] (衡山) strategic command in Taipei’s northern suburb of Dazhi (大直) within 10 minutes.

I can’t find Dazhi on my map of Taipei, so I’m going to guess that it’s somewhere near the Yangmingshan area.  The President is supposed to be spirited there by chopper, but the defense minister will have to get there by car.

In ten minutes.  From the middle of downtown Taipei.

He doesn’t need a car.  What he needs is transporter technology or a pair of ruby slippers.  The roads in Northern Taiwan are pretty congested, and they’d be even more difficult to navigate after the inevitable sabotage.*  Maybe traffic control could give him green lights all the way, but you’d have to expect electronic warfare on that front as well.

I just hope that one of his deputies is posted in Hengshan at all times.  Because the minister of defense just might be awhile.

The story goes on to say what will happen in Hengshan:

"Chen will immediately conduct a 90-minute national security meeting, followed by a 60-minute military meeting. The president will then decide whether the country would declare war against China after the meetings," the report said.

The report said that the war games will simulate two scenarios: Taiwan coming under a large-scale missile attack from China and China launching a decapitation-style attack on Taipei.

The report said various political, military, diplomatic and economic issues would be dealt with in the war-games, including outlining how to ask for foreign help, ways to communicate with the nation’s most important allies, the US and Japan, as well as methods to reassure the public and stabilize consumer prices, and rescue the injured.

What can I say about any of this?  I’m just glad that I don’t have Chen’s job.

* Sabotage will of course, be facilitated when large numbers of Chinese are permitted into the country as "tourists".  Perhaps as a sign of hospitality, each should be given a rifle and grenade at customs, so as to save them the long commute to their pre-positioned weapons drop points.

Taiwanese Warren Commission?

When you stop to think about it, there are a number of ways in which America and Taiwan are alike:

  • America likes baseball. Taiwan likes baseball.
  • America’s got 7-11s.  So does Taiwan.  In spades. 
  • America watches NBA. Taiwan loves the Lakers, too.

But that’s not all:  You know America’s JFK assassination conspiracy theorists?  Well, Taiwan has something similar, only its brand attempts to prove that President Chen Shway-Bian was somehow behind the March 19th, 2004 attempt on his own life in order to obtain sympathy votes. *

(That’s right, President Chen had himself shot so that he could steal the election.  How come Karl Rove never thought of that?)

There’s another important difference, too.  In America, if someone "proves" his theory surrounding the death of JFK, there is no practical consequence.  His suspect is probably dead, or least, too old to still be involved in politics.  In Taiwan though, if someone could actually prove that Chen faked his own shooting for selfish political motives, then they’d instantly have grounds for removing Chen from the presidency.

What that means is that here, wild-eyed discussions aren’t confined to kooks who obsessively replay assassination-related videos in darkened living rooms.  There’s a very real political incentive for rational politicians to spout these outlandish theories with a straight face, because doing so might someday help them topple their political foe.  But even if the President’s enemies fail at that, they can still weaken his legitimacy and divert the national conversation from other, more pressing issues.

Front page news in Wednesday’s papers was the formation of a new government commission by the KMT and its allies to discover the "truth" about the assassination.  The China Post says this commission is to be similar to an American special counsel, but that isn’t quite accurate because of the questionable legality of the Taiwanese variant.  According to Taiwan’s constitution, there is a branch of government (the Control Yuan) whose sole purpose is to investigate wrongdoing by the other branches.  It seems to me that with the creation of this commission, the legislature has fully usurped the responsibilities of an entire branch of government.

At this point, you might be asking yourself what the Control Yuan has to say about having its powers stolen like that.  The answer is: Not much.  The Control Yuan has been vacant for over a year now, because the legislature has steadfastly rejected all of President Chen’s nominees for that body.

Which makes all of this a pretty naked power grab.  The KMT-dominated legislature refused to hire Taiwan a watchman, and then unilaterally decided to take that job for itself.

As I’ve illustrated, there are real constitutional grounds for striking this commission down, which is what happened to its previous incarnation.  If that fails, Chen’s political enemies will use their majority on the commission to float their absurd theories, and then decide which narrative that they like best.  Chen’s supporters will be permitted to write a dissent, but the official finding is already pre-ordained.  The President had himself shot to win the election ‘coz the KMT says he did.  What better proof could there be than that?

Once the commission’s foregone conclusion is delivered, I wonder about the next step, though.  The KMT doesn’t have the numbers in the legislature for impeachment, and members of the President’s party will undoubtably recognize the commission’s findings for what they are and refuse to cross the aisle.  With the "truth" in their hands, could the KMT approach the Supreme Court and demand Chen’s removal?  I don’t pretend to know the answer.  But I DO get the sense that the KMT would love to use the "truth" as an excuse for street thuggery, with an eye on overthrowing the government.  Last week, a columnist for the China Post wrote:

[The Chen administration will] either bring Taiwan further down the road of no return during the next two years, or it will precipitate large-scale violent and even bloody anti-government demonstrations to demand a change of course. **

In short, do as the KMT says, or there’ll be…trouble.

* Click here for my brief summary of the attempted assassination.  And here’s a Taipei Times editorial that makes the rather obvious observation that there are easier ways of rigging an election than having yourself shot in the abdomen.

** From "Chen will still pursue his own course" by Dr. William Fang from the Apr 7th edition of the China Post.  Sorry, I can’t find the link.