This, like reports of Zarqawi’s demise, is something that I won’t fully believe until somebody shows me the body. Nonetheless, the best cure for a bad case of China Fever is some sobering news about some of the problems facing the Central Kingdom.
However, in the absence of hostile action or a major crash, attitudes won’t change here any time soon. Simple prudence should be enough to motivate Taiwan to diversify its foreign markets. But short-term profits, a Greater China ideology and the comparative ease of entry for Taiwanese into the China market are all luring too many Taiwanese into thinking that it’s a terrific idea to put all of your eggs into a single basket.
UPDATE (JAN 16/05): The writer in the above link believes that 2007 is the most dangerous time for China’s banks. An op-ed piece by William Pesek Jr. in today’s Taiwan News thinks 2006 is the year to watch. Pesek says that China needs to maintain its current growth rate for the next 15 years in order to avoid a banking crisis, and he thinks that’s unlikely.
At any rate, I’ll keep what both of them say in mind, but I won’t be holding my breath.
China’s ills are pretty well known. There’s no news here really.
However, it’s useful to remember that back in Qing dynasty the nation endured corruption, foreign invasions, and a calamtious civil war in which 20 million died(by comparison a war of similar period, the American Civil War, cost about 560,300 deaths, according to Wiki). In the end, Qing died a long, painful and slow death that span more than 60 years. I can’t help but feel any such “impending doom” is probably going to span a long period measured in decades, not years.