5 thoughts on “A Few Links”

  1. I read StrategyPage regularly too, and saw those articles. Interesting stuff.
    On the good side the USN is getting even more serious about the possibility of a Chinese attack, the better to deter them.
    On the down side I have to think that the leaders of the PRC are watching events in Iraq closely, and might figure if we lose there we won’t have the stomach to fight over the ROC. They might be right.
    Militarily, time is on our side. The advanced weapons we have scheduled to come on line are better than the PLA/N weapons. Of course, this assumes that we actually carry though on our plans to build them.
    I’ve thought for some time that if the PRC makes a move, it’ll be shortly after the 2008 Olympics. They’ll use the games as a propaganda kickoff.

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    In “Black Hawk Down” (the book), the author says that bugging out of Somalia sent a terrible message. I quote (badly) from memory:
    “We will fight them on the hills; we will fight them on the beaches; we will never surrender.
    Unless, of course, the enemy shoots back at us, or we start to take a few casualties.”
    Same deal goes for Iraq.
    By the way, I read a blog post by SOMEBODY (argh, can’t remember who), who speculated that the best time for an attack would be DURING the 2008 Olympics. Sounds crazy, but it would certainly be in keeping with the Chinese love of indirection and surprise.

  3. I see the Olympics as a watershed too for an attack on Taiwan. Before? During? After? An argument can be made for all three.
    Time is not on China’s side, politically. Especially if Ma doesn’t win the ’08 election. A DPP majority in the legislature and a DPP preznit may mean that China’s patience may be exhausted. Expect the KMT to hit on exactly that point.
    Anyway, foreigner, the first two articles have the same link, man.
    Michael

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    Do I rock, or what? One post – only THREE links – and I get ONE of them wrong.
    That’s 2 out of 3! Woo-hoo!
    (Thanks for letting me know so I could fix that, Michael.)
    By the way, you had a recent post where you seemed pessimistic about the DPP holding onto its seats in the legislature. Maybe I read that wrong. Anyways, what do you think’s the likelihood that the DPP’ll get a majority later this year?

  5. At the moment, I consider it low unless the KMT legislators bolt en masse or something similar happens. There was an analysis in TT a couple of months ago that pointed out the advantage to the KMT from the new districting is something like 11 seats — the DPP starts 11 down in the next election. It reminds of the white-black power sharing in Rhodesia after the end of the first revolt and the institution of majority rule.
    Of course, the KMT is skilled at fucking things up, so I remain optimistic.
    Michael

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