Chinese Militarist Troublemakers Provoke Japan

Apparently, Taiwan's Chinese ultranationalist "Supreme Leader" isn't the only one who believes that Japan's Senkaku islands belong to China:

A tense maritime incident Tuesday in which two Japanese patrol vessels and a Chinese fishing boat collided near a disputed island chain triggered a diplomatic spat between the Asian giants.

[…]

The Chinese boat's bow then hit the Yonakuni's stern and also collided with another Japanese patrol boat, the Mizuki, some 40 minutes later, Kyodo reported citing the coast guard.

All the more reason for America to participate in joint exercises with ally Japan to exert sovereignty over the islands.  Because contrary to the assertions made by Taiwan's China Post, Peking's Pekinese Ma Ying-jeou in Taipei simply cannot be counted on if Beijing makes a land-grab.

Fish Quietly And Send A Big Gunboat

Chinese militarists direct a fleet of 10 fishing trawlers to intentionally violate Indonesia's Exclusive Economic Zone, then train gunboat weapons on the Indonesian Coast Guard ship that attempts to detain one of them.

The Klingons don't take prisoners, Mr. Saavik.

Chinese dictator Hu Jintao holding a dead cartoon fish. Caption: Your Natural Resources Are All Belong To Us.


UPDATE:  Related analysis by Gordon Chang here.

UPDATE #2:  Heh.  Daniel Drezner describes events such as these as part of China's shrewd "Pissing Off As Many Countries As Possible" grand strategy.


i-1

Chinese Communists Would Conquer Taiwan In Three Days

According to the most recent computer wargame simulations conducted by the island nation's Ministry of National Defense.

The ruling Chinese Nationalist Party of Taiwan was said to be horrified by the revelation, and vowed to rectify the country's precarious situation by blocking all weapons procurement bills at least 60 times over the course of the next two years.

Beijing-Tehran Axis?

From Michael Rubin's LA Times column:

In the aftermath of [Iran's 1999 student] protests, the Chinese government supplied security consultants to Tehran. Rather than bash heads and risk protests and endless cycles of mourning, Iranian security services began photographing demonstrations, after which they would arrest participants over the course of a month when they were alone and could not spark mob reaction.

Googling this comes up with nothing; I can't find a single primary source to confirm this.  Of course, it's plausible — probable, even — that China would export its techniques of governmental repression.  That's what the CCP would call, "non-interference in the internal affairs of other states".

Until I hear of more evidence though, I'm filing this one under, "Believable, but not verified."

A Quick Point About That Chinese Sub / American Sonar Collision

Recall back in March, when the Chinese pounded
their chests over the U.S.S. Impeccable's presence in China's EEZ
You're provoking us, they said.  How dare you violate our sacred waters?

Flash forward almost 3 months to the day, when a Chinese submarine struck the sonar array of the U.S.S. John McCain.  It sounds like the collision took place in Philippino territorial waters, but it's possible it occurred in the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone instead.

Either way, I'm pretty sure Manilla didn't grant Beijing permission to operate there.  Which clearly demonstrates that to the Chinese, only China's naval territory is inviolable.


UPDATE:  A good explanation of the Impeccable incident over at YouTube.

GhostNet At The Feast

David Gelernter, the computer scientist who was maimed by the Unabomber a few years back, discusses the discovery of a Trojan horse program originating from China:

Last weekend, a report by researchers at the Munk Center of the University of Toronto revealed "GhostNet," a computer espionage virus that had infected around 1,300 computers worldwide–including many "high value" targets where diplomatic and national security information was stored . . .  Experts disagree on whether the evidence proves China's guilt or merely suggests it overwhelmingly.  [emphasis added]

Nice turn of phrase there.  The Chinese government's reaction was certainly telling.  Chinese officials COULD have calmly announced that **ahem** freelance hackers must be at fault, and that they'd launch an investigation to find those responsible.

Instead what the world heard was the shoe on the table.  LIES, LIES, these are all LIES!  Those devious CANADIAN schemers are trying to start a new COLD WAR for their own malicious purposes!

Very . . . Kremlinesque.  China launches Cold War-style cyber attacks — then accuses the VICTIMS of its attacks of trying to start a Cold War.

Gelernter outlines why China's cyberwarfare was so difficult to uncover:

The focused nature of the attack helped it succeed. Businesses and other organizations that detect viruses are less likely to notice and get hold of a new virus that attacks a mere thousand computers instead of hundreds of thousands. Until the target organizations do get hold of the virus, they can't analyze it and use "signature detection" and related techniques to warn users when infected cyberstuff arrives on their machines.  [emphasis added]

His conclusion?

GhostNet reminds us that the new Cold War won't be fought with the threats and weapons of the old one.  Americans might have less trouble keeping in mind occupied Tibet, the war on Chinese Christianity, the imprisonment and torture of political dissidents and members of Falun Gong, the one-child-only decree and other specimens of PRC tyranny if they didn't find Asian-on-Asian violence so deucedly boring.  Instead of paying attention to those issues, we simper about mutual respect and cooperation–without acknowledging the fact that China is today the world's most powerful Evil Empire.  The Soviets favored large armies and nuclear arsenals, but China is our new Cold War enemy, and her favorite weapons will also be novel: financial weapons, trade weapons, cyberweapons.  Welcome to Cold War II.  [emphasis added]


UPDATE:  Just ran across reports of Chinese cyber-warfare against India, from the Truth about China blog.  More about that from the Times of India.

China, America and the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea

Ill-informed be the reader who relies on Taiwan's China Post for knowledge of this subject.  From an editorial on March 24th:

The 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS – The Foreigner], to which the U.S. is not a signatory . . .

Wrong.  President Bill Clinton signed the treaty all the way back in 1994.  What IS true is that the American senate has never RATIFIED the agreement. 

A distinction without a difference?  Hardly, as we shall next see:

But the U.S. does not subscribe to [UNCLOS] rules on [Exclusive Economic Zones].

Wrong again.  Ever since the Reagan administration, the American government has committed itself to abiding by the terms of the treaty — EXCEPT for the provisions governing deep sea mining.  So the U.S. DOES subscribe to UNCLOS rules on EEZs (for the most part), despite the fact that America hasn't ratified the agreement.

(And, just to make this clear, those deep sea mining provisions are utterly irrelevant to the current disagreements America & China are having over China's EEZ in the South China Sea.)

[An American research ship's visit to China's EEZ] could be even more provocative than the USNS Impeccable's mission that led to the recent standoff.

Beijing's stance on its EEZ over the Impeccable incident should give the Columbia University scientists pause for thought.  Right or wrong, it has accused the U.S. of violating international and Chinese laws by conducting surveillance in its exclusive zone.

Much of this is not merely wrong; it's wrong BY DEFINITION.  The Post makes the incredible claim here that the Impeccable's surveillance mission was an American provocation, REGARDLESS of whether China's legal arguments are right or wrong.

That's tantamount to saying that ANYTHING is a provocation, just as long as Beijing says it is.  International law don't mean squat, in other words.

We can dismiss out of hand the Post's bizarre implicit claim that China's whims make it the ultimate authority on international law.  But we should be willing to admit that if the UNCLOS prohibits intelligence-gathering in EEZs, then international law is on China's side.  And, and if this is the case, then the presence of the Impeccable in China's Exclusive Economic Zone WAS an American provocation.

Conversely, if the UNCLOS doesn't prohibit such intelligence gathering, then international law is on America's side.  Which makes the Impeccable incident, in actuality, a CHINESE provocation.

Let's go to the treaty to decide for ourselves, shall we?

Part V of UNCLOS describes the rights and jurisdiction of coastal states over their EEZs.  The reader will find that there is nothing — NOTHING — in this part of the treaty forbidding naval surveillance in Exclusive Economic Zones.  Oh sure, you might find that Article 60.5 permits coastal states to establish 500 meter "no-go" zones around oil rig platforms and the like.  Which of course is interesting and commonsensical, but has no bearing on the Impeccable case.

If one looks a bit back in the treaty, one DOES find that Part II, Article 19.2 (c) prohibits acts "aimed at collecting information to the prejudice of the defence or security of the coastal State".  But Part II of the treaty deals only with TERRITORIAL SEAS, which international law defines as extending 12 nautical miles from land (UNCLOS, Part II, Article 3).

Since the Impeccable was operating 65 nautical miles (120 kilometers) from Hainan Island (and not 12 nmi), it was within China's EEZ, not China's Territorial Seas.  Therefore, the relevant part of UNCLOS is Part V, not Part II.

Ergo, the Impeccable was well within its rights under international law to conduct intelligence operations.  By interfering with those operations, it was China that was the provocateur, as I have demonstrated.

Let's go back to the Post's editorial, which in spite of getting all this wrong, does manage to get at least ONE thing right:

A U.S. survey vessel is risking another confrontation in the waters around China when it arrives in the region this week . . .

The operators of the [civilian] research ship, the Marcus G. Langseth . . . have permission to conduct a seismic survey of the ocean floor from the governments of Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan.  Beijing was not informed.

This IS true, because Part II, Article 56.1 (b) (ii) of the UNCLOS clearly states:

In the exclusive economic zone, the coastal State has . . . jurisdiction as provided for in the relevant provisions of this Convention with regard to . . . marine scientific research.  [emphasis added]

Thus, while international law was on America's side in the case of the Impeccable conducting intelligence work in China's EEZ, it's on CHINA'S side if the Langseth performs marine research in those very same waters without Chinese permission.

May seem strange that coastal states can legally prevent innocent research but not OPEN SPYING within their EEZs, but there you go.  It wasn't me who drew up the document.


UPDATE:  Interestingly enough, the Marcus G. Langseth's mission is being conducted mostly for Taiwan's benefit.  From the Langseth's pre-survey statement:

This project will provide a great deal of information about the nature of the earthquakes around Taiwan and will lead to a better assessment of earthquake hazard in the area. The information obtained from this study will help the people and government of Taiwan to better assess the potential for future seismic events and may thus mitigate some of the loss of life and economic disruptions that will inevitably occur.

UPDATE #2:  During her Jan 13/09 confirmation hearing, Hillary Clinton revealed that the Obama administration will press for U.S. ratification of the UNCLOS.  (You'll have to scroll down almost halfway through the transcript, to her question session with Senator Murkowski)

CLINTON: Yes, [ratification will be a priority for the administration], and it will be because it is long overdue, Senator. The Law of the Sea Treaty is supported by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, environmental, energy, and business interests. I have spoken with some of our — our naval leaders, and they consider themselves to be somewhat disadvantaged by our not having become a party to the Law of the Sea.

Our industrial interests, particularly with seabed mining, just shut up.  I mean, there's nothing that they can do because there's no protocol that they can feel comfortable that gives them the opportunity to pursue commercial interests.  [emphasis added]

Seems pretty damn arrogant for the Secretary of State to dismiss America's mining companies so rudely.  Reminded me of an old song, from back in the day:

Joe Dolce's Shaddup You Face

I notice Samuel L. Jackson has his own unique take on some of the lyrics.  Heh.

[Mar 30/09:  A commenter informs me that Mrs. Clinton wasn't telling the mining companies to shut UP; she was really trying to say that the mining companies had shut DOWN their deep sea operations.  You gotta admit though, the words, "shut up," really leap off the transcript.]

UPDATE #3:  Enough fun stuff.  Here's an article by Robert D. Kaplan that ought to be required reading.  Somewhat sensationally titled, "How We Would Fight China," the fighting Kaplan refers to is more like the Cold War kind.  Written in 2005, some of it's obviously out of date — concerns over the possibility that Taiwan might unilaterally declare de jure independence have surely given way to concerns over Taiwan's Finlandization by its neighbor to the west.

The piece is quite prescient with regards to China's games of naval brinksmanship, however:

What we can probably expect from China in the near future is specific demonstrations of strength—like its successful forcing down of a U.S. Navy EP-3E surveillance plane in the spring of 2001. Such tactics may represent the trend of twenty-first-century warfare better than anything now happening in Iraq—and China will have no shortage of opportunities in this arena. During one of our biennial Rim of the Pacific naval exercises the Chinese could sneak a sub under a carrier battle group and then surface it. They could deploy a moving target at sea and then hit it with a submarine- or land-based missile, demonstrating their ability to threaten not only carriers but also destroyers, frigates, and cruisers. (Think about the political effects of the terrorist attack on the USS Cole, a guided-missile destroyer, off the coast of Yemen in 2000—and then think about a future in which hitting such ships will be easier.) They could also bump up against one of our ships during one of our ongoing Freedom of Navigation exercises off the Asian coast. The bumping of a ship may seem inconsequential, but keep in mind that in a global media age such an act can have important strategic consequences. Because the world media tend to side with a spoiler rather than with a reigning superpower, the Chinese would have a built-in political advantage.

UPDATE #4:  Move over China Post, the Beeb gets it wrong, too.

Once more people: the Impeccable was operating in China's Exclusive Economic Zone, NOT its Territorial Sea.  Like the China Post, the BBC gets the two hopelessly confused.

UPDATE #5:  The pre-survey statement of the Marcus G. Langseth is quite explicit about what route the ship will be taking:

The survey would take place from March through July 2009 in the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of Taiwan, China, Philippines, and Japan, in water depths ranging from <100 to >1000 m.  [emphasis added]

It seems highly unlikely that Columbia University would have accidentally overlooked the importance of asking the Chinese for permission to conduct the survey. 

So it's speculation time.  Perhaps the reason the Chinese were not approached was that the U.S. Government wished to send them a message:  If you're not going to abide by the terms of the treaty, then why should WE?

China Arms Islamofascists

One of the unstated corollaries to Kagan’s piece in the Policy Review is that China can be expected to play the role of the "Arsenal of Autocracy."  Some evidence for that over at the Weekly Standard (allowing that Islamofascism represents a peculiar kind of autocracy):

The Pentagon has known since last August that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards had supplied Chinese-made C-802 antiship missiles with advanced anti-jamming countermeasures to Hezbollah in Lebanon. One slammed into the Israeli destroyer Hanit killing four sailors on July 14, 2006, during the Lebanon war.

Furthermore:

This year, many truckloads of small arms and explosives direct from Chinese government-owned factories to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been transshipped to Iraq and Afghanistan, where they are used against American soldiers and Marines and NATO forces. Since April, according to a knowledgeable Bush administration official, "vast amounts" of Chinese-made large caliber sniper rifles, "millions of rounds" of ammunition, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and "IED [improvised explosive device] components" have been convoyed from Iran into Iraq and to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

[…]

Why China is "doing it" need not be a mystery. In 2004, Beijing’s top America analyst, Wang Jisi, noted, "The facts have proven that it is beneficial for our international environment to have the United States militarily and diplomatically deeply sunk in the Mideast to the extent that it can hardly extricate itself." It is sobering to consider that China’s small-arms proliferation behavior since then suggests that this principle is indeed guiding Chinese foreign policy.

On The Sunny Side Of The Street

I’m not going to heap scorn upon this China Post editorial.  Because there are days when I, too, think things might work out for the best in the Middle Kingdom:

Today’s communist leaders in China are pragmatists, who believes in Deng Xiaoping’s "cat theory" of getting results rather than Mao Zedong’s egalitarianism of glorifying poverty on an equal footing. The merit of the law should be judged by the answer to a single question: Do the people want it?

But the mainland people may want more-free elections, free press and independent courts, for example. Clearly, the National People’s Congress is in no hurry to work on these political reforms, which are lagging far behind. These are the reforms that can best safeguard against the abuse of power by corrupt officials. So, after property reform, political reform must be on the agenda.

Already, grassroots pressure for such reform is mounting. The rising middle class and increasingly well-educated people will demand political reforms that are now put on the back burner. If the past is an indication, we have reasons to be optimistic that such reforms will be carried out in another decade or two, if not sooner.

China’s communists may be more pragmatic than they once were, but is that pragmatism directed at doing what’s good for their country, or merely doing whatever allows them to hold their positions of power and privilege?  A selfless utilitarian might, out of a sense of pragmatism, be willing to allow himself to be voted out of office in order to better serve the needs of society.  But communist oligarchs obsessed with clinging to power may be much less inclined to do so.

Furthermore, while I agree that the well-educated will demand political reforms, it is not at all inevitable that they will succeed in getting these demands met.  Tienanmen Square happened once, and it can happen again.  And again and again.  Heinlein once depicted a society whose subjects were completely co-opted by a fascist state; they were perfectly free to make all the money they wanted, and as long they tended to their own gardens, the State was content to leave them alone.  The Federation was unapologetically brutal to those who dared meddle in politics, however.

"Starship Troopers" may have been fiction, but a few societies HAVE paralleled it in real-life.  Could China take that path as well?  I wonder…

There ARE indeed hopeful developments in China, but there are others the sober observer cannot ignore.  The creation of the "Great Firewall", continuing persecution against certain religious minorities, a blithely amoral foreign policy – these are all things that suggest China might be moving in a darker direction.

To this list, I might add China’s treatment of the free and democratic state of Taiwan.  A few years ago, a Taiwanese industrialist doing business there was threatened, with tax audits and overzealous safety inspections, into signing a document declaring his "opposition" to Taiwanese independence.  It was only last year that Chinese arm-twisting caused an airplane carrying Taiwan’s president to be forbidden from flying over Mexican airspace.  And let it not be forgotten that China currently aims a thousand missiles at Taiwan, in an effort to terrorize the population into submission. 

Taiwan is the canary in the coal mine, and how China treats it should be of interest to everyone.  Today, it’s Taiwanese industrialists who are being bullied into taking political stances; tomorrow, it may be businessmen from YOUR country.  Today, China prevents Taiwan’s president from freely traveling; tomorrow, it may prevent the president of some other democratic country it’s displeased with from doing so.

And the missiles?  Well, TODAY they, and other weapons, are targeted upon Taiwan.  And tomorrow?  Well, by now I hope you’ve gotten the picture.