Relations -Sino-Taiwanese | The Foreigner in Formosa

Oct 25th Protest

Floods of demonstrators took to the streets in Taipei City yesterday, venting their anger at the [KMT] administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and its policies, which they said threaten Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Protesters young and old marched under banners reading “Oppose toxic products, defend sovereignty,” “Defend Taiwan,” “I am Taiwanese, not Chinese” and “Taiwan is not part of China,” demanding that Beijing apologize to Taiwan for selling milk and other products tainted with the industrial chemical melamine.

[…]

Event organizers estimated that more than 600,000 people took part in the rally, while Taipei police said they would not provide an estimate.

Of course, rally organizers DO have a vested interest in inflating participation figures. Though it is telling when local police (who are notorious for low-balling anti-KMT protest numbers) uncharacteristically REFUSE to provide their own estimates…

At any rate, I was one of the five or six hundred thousand people there. Arrived at Bo Ai Road (the camera shop street) about 7 pm. I must say, the commercial area was pretty dead for a Saturday night. Had dinner, and walked over to Ketagalan Avenue. Miscalculated where I was going in the dark, and wound up behind the stage, facing the Presidential Building. Saw a small group of people engaged in a sit-down protest behind the barricades. And I also saw streaks of green laser light in the night air, aimed at the Presidential Building.

At the time, I had no way of knowing that the lasers were being used to trace the Chinese characters for "Incompetent" on President Ma Ying-jeou's offices. Looking at the picture I took now, you can see the neon green characters at the main entrance under the central tower. It's partially obscured by the steel girder of the barricade, however.

Anti-Ma Ying-jeou protest on the evening of Oct 25, 2008 in Taipei, Taiwan. The Taiwanese Presidential Office is in the background.

This is the best zoom of the above picture I could manage with a photo editor program:

The Chinese characters for Incompetent are projected onto the Presidential office gate with lasers in the evening of the Oct 25, 2008 protest against Ma Ying-jeou in Taipei, Taiwan.

(According to Babelfish.com, the Traditional Chinese characters for "incompetent" are 無能.)

After that, I made a wide detour along a side street so I could take a gander at the stage. Here 'tis:

Anti-Ma Ying-jeou protest on the evening of Oct 25, 2008 in Taipei, Taiwan.

Unfortunately, the photo compresses the distances involved, making it appear as though there's only a few hundred there. I figured a few thousand — ten thousand, tops. Frankly, I was a little depressed at what I thought was a low turnout. But hey, I got there near the tail-end of the rally. Sunday's Taipei Times featured a shot from earlier Saturday:

Anti-Ma Ying-jeou protest during the day of Oct 25, 2008 in Taipei, Taiwan.

(Image from the Taipei Times)

That's certainly more like it. Anyways, here's one more of my own pics, when folks became animated over something the speaker said:

Animated crowd at the anti-Ma Ying-jeou protest on the evening of Oct 25, 2008 in Taipei, Taiwan.

A software zoom of those three placards at the top-left:

Placards held in the evening at the Oct 25, 2008 protest against Ma Ying-jeou. The one on the left reads, Keep Taiwan Free. The one in the middle says, China Sucks. And the one on the right says, Taiwan Is NOT For Sale.

A short video of one of the tunes that was sung:

Suffering from a killer headache and allergy-induced exhaustion, I left after about an hour. But not before snapping this giant "Chinese Baby Milk" balloon:

Giant baby bottle balloon from the evening of the anti Ma Ying-jeou protest of Oct 25, 2008. The bottle says Made In China, and refers to melamine-tainted baby's milk that was imported from the Sanlu Group in Communist China.

And not before getting a couple shots of this banner:

A dog with the number 9 on its side (representing Ma Ying-jeou) delivers Taiwan to an enthroned Hu Jintao. From the evening of the Oct 25, 2008 anti-Ma rally in Taipei, Taiwan.

A closeup of a dog with the number 9 on its side (representing Ma Ying-jeou) delivering Taiwan to an enthroned Hu Jintao. From the evening of the Oct 25, 2008 anti-Ma rally in Taipei, Taiwan.

I assume the "running dog" is Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, delivering his country into the hands of Chinese President Hu Jintao. No idea what the #9 is supposed to signify, however. [UPDATE: See comments section for the answer.]

UPDATE #1: On Monday, the Chinese Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) issued an apology for the ill effects the melamine milk adulteration scandal has had on the Taiwanese economy.

So let's review. ARATS has had a MONTH to apologize — and they only do it ONE WEEK before their delegation arrives in Taiwan. Or, make that TWO DAYS after HALF-A-MILLION are hacked off enough to take to the streets in an anti-unification march.

Life's just full of coincidences like that, I guess . . .

UPDATE #2: It should be noted that ARATS is an unofficial Chinese organization, so any apology they happen to issue is also, perforce, unofficial. But even were Hu Jintao himself to apologize tomorrow, the fact would remain that sorries don't butter no parsnips. Taiwanese bakeries are still going to go bankrupt no matter how effusive Chinese statements of regret are. (Or rather, AREN'T.)

Incidentally, that story from Monday's Taipei Times featured this howler:

. . . [Taiwanese negotiators were assured that ARATS] would make every effort to mete out severe punishment to those held responsible . . .

Errr, the Communist Party of China KNEW about the melamine milk problem at least as far back as August, but kept silent in order not to tarnish the glory of the Genocide Games.

So we will anxiously await the day when the Elliot Nesses of ARATS "mete out severe punishment" to all those nasty communist party chiefs . . . the same chiefs, by the way, who appointed our incorruptible investigators to their cushy ARATS jobs in the first place!

i-9/10

From The Land Of Melamine And Honey

Just finished tossing out a Moon cake leftover from the Midautumn Festival, as well as some old powdered milk and soda crackers. Figure that's about a $150 NT loss, but ya do what ya gotta do if you want to avoid ingesting the chemical precursor for whiteboard resin.

Got me to thinking, though. Suppose everybody in Taiwan is doing as I am. And let's be conservative: they each toss out $25 NT worth of bread or cookies or what have you. Times 23 million people — that's $575 million NT, or about $20 million U.S. dollars. Add to that losses local businesses are taking due to stock they've had to pull from the shelves. And the losses they're taking because people are too afraid to buy ANY milk-based products, because they can't be certain of the provenance.

I STILL haven't seen estimates of the latter two yet, and I'm reluctant to hazard a guess. Must be mucho dinero, though.

Say, does anybody remember the Senkaku Island incident earlier this year? Back in June, a Taiwanese recreational fishing boat strayed (either unintentionally or deliberately) into Japanese waters and was rammed by a Japanese coast guard vessel. In short order, Taiwan's ambassador was recalled, threats of war darkly uttered, demands for apologies and compensation issued.

After a brief standoff, the Japanese government made an apology and paid reparations.

My point is, that all that fuss was made over ONE fishing boat. One. One boat that was worth a heckuva lot less than what Taiwan's economy has recently lost due to dairy products imported from China. So where are the recalls of Taiwan's negotiators? The threats of war? The demands for apologies and reparations? *

* Rhetorical questions, some of these. (I don't seriously think war should be threatened over this.)

Now, Taiwan's opposition DID ask China's government for apologies and compensation late last month, and the Taiwanese premier seconded the motion a day later.

However, Taiwan's chief negotiator was a little less enthusiastic about the whole thing:

Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) said yesterday that the foundation would definitely “communicate” with Beijing if the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) asked the foundation to seek an apology from China over the tainted milk scandal.

When asked whether he would ask his Chinese counterpart — Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) — to apologize or bring up the issue of compensation when he visits Taiwan later this month or early next month, Chiang said he would “exchange views with Chen on issues placed on the agenda.” [emphasis added]

The name's Chiang. " Firebreathin' " Chiang.

“Taiwan Region” Does Not Compute

From Thursday's Taipei Times:

President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) did not denigrate the country’s sovereignty or move toward de-Taiwanization by describing Taiwan as a region, Presidential Office spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) said on Monday.

[…]

Wang said Ma did not create the term “Taiwan region” to blur the country’s sovereignty, saying that Ma’s new characterization of the cross-strait relationship as one between the “Taiwan region” and the “mainland region” was in accordance with the Republic of China (Taiwan) Constitution.

Based on the constitutional framework, both regions are part of the Republic of China’s (ROC) territory, but only the “Taiwan region” is under the rule of the ROC, Wang said.

Ah yes, the old constitution dodge. But if it's constitutionally kosher to describe Taiwan as being a part of the Republic of China, then why does the Taiwanese government under the KMT get so indignant when Taiwan is referred to as being part of China?

Doesn't the government believe in its own "1992 Consensus" rhetoric? After all, by the KMT's own interpretation of the supposed consensus, "China" and "Republic of China" are INTERCHANGEABLE terms!

Or, to put it in somewhat more mathematically:

Taiwan, Republic of China* —– constitutionally OK
Republic of China = China ——- constitutionally OK; in line with the "1992 Consensus"

Substituting "China" for "Republic of China" then gives us:

Taiwan, China ———————- Unacceptable! says Taiwan's government

Captain Kirk induced many a computer to self-destruction with illogic such as this. The R.O.C. constitution is an ass.

* To be more rigorous, I could have used subset notation instead:

1) Taiwan is a subset, or part of, the Republic of China (Taiwan ⊂ Republic of China)
2) The Republic of China and China are interchangeable terms, or equivalent sets (Republic of China ~ China)

Ergo:

3) Taiwan is also a subset of China (Taiwan ⊂ China)

The KMT government of Taiwan insists both #1 and #2 are true, but inescapable consequence, #3, is not.

Ka-boom.

Drawing The Wrong Lessons From Georgia

Monday's Taiwan News featured an editorial (Taiwan is not Georgia) in which it discussed two articles, Georgia's Lessons for Taiwan (from the Far Eastern Economic Review) and From Georgia to Taiwan (from The Wall Street Journal Asia). The Taiwan News sums up the themes of the two opinion pieces:

According to these two heavyweight articles, the commonality is that ambiguous messages of support sent by the Bush administration led [Georgian President Mikhail] Saakashvili and Taiwan's former president Chen Shui-bian to take U.S. protection for granted and to perceive Bush's support as equal to U.S. backing for their "pursuit" of independence regardless of possible confrontations between the U.S. and Russia or between the U.S. and the PRC in the case of Taiwan.

Or, to put it more bluntly, Taiwan over the past 8 years was provoking China just as Georgia provoked Russia; and so in the interests of preventing a similar Sino-Taiwanese conflict, the reduction of American support for Taiwan was wise and just and proper.

With this the Taiwan News took issue. Admitting that Saakashvili unnecessarily provoked Russia, the editors forcefully denied that Taiwan had done the same to China:

What these pundits see as "provocative" were the moves made by Chen and the DPP government to deepen Taiwan's democracy for the sake of improving domestic governance, to foster a stronger sense of Taiwan national identity and citizenship, and to promote the participation of "Democratic Taiwan" in the world community.

In contrast to Saakashvili's invasion, Chen's actions were not aimed to "pursue" independence but to defend Taiwan's actually existing independence and democracy from the threat posed by an authoritarian power. Instead, it has been the PRC which has posed a clear and present military threat against both Taiwan and regional peace by engaging in a massive build-up of over 1,000 ballistic missiles and other offensive forces during the past 15 years and by relentless pushing to isolate Taiwan internationally and achieve annexation through intimidation combined with economic integration.

The only fly in the ointment is that everyone here is proceeding from false assumptions. Jeffrey Bader and Douglas Paal from the Far Eastern Economic Review. Richard Bush and Kenneth Lieberthal from the Wall Street Journal Asia. And last but not least, the Taiwan News.

They're all mistaken because they completely misunderstand how the War of 8/8/08 began. And if someone misunderstands the origins of that war, then any "lessons" they draw and attempt to apply to Taiwan immediately become suspect.

From independent journalist Michael J. Totten:

Virtually everyone believes Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili foolishly provoked a Russian invasion on August 7, 2008, when he sent troops into the breakaway district of South Ossetia. “The warfare began Aug. 7 when Georgia launched a barrage targeting South Ossetia,” the Associated Press reported [several weekends ago] in typical fashion.

Virtually everyone is wrong. Georgia didn't start it on August 7, nor on any other date. The South Ossetian militia started it on August 6 when its fighters fired on Georgian peacekeepers and Georgian villages with weapons banned by the agreement hammered out between the two sides in 1994. At the same time, the Russian military sent its invasion force bearing down on Georgia from the north side of the Caucasus Mountains on the Russian side of the border through the Roki tunnel and into Georgia. This happened before Saakashvili sent additional troops to South Ossetia and allegedly started the war. [emphasis added]

[…]

“[On the] 3rd of August, [South Ossetian president Eduard] Kokoity announces women and children should leave [as a prelude to hostilities]. As it later turned out, he made all the civilians leave who were not fighting or did not have fighting capabilities. On the same day, irregulars – Ingush, Chechen, Ossetians, and Cossacks – start coming in and spreading out into the countryside but don't do anything. They just sit and wait. On the 6th of August the shelling intensifies from Ossetian positions. And for the first time since the war finished in 1992, they are using 120mm guns.”

"That was the formal start of the war . . . Because of the peace treaty they had, nobody was allowed to have guns bigger than 80 mm." [emphasis added]

[…]

"On the evening of the 7th, the Ossetians launch an all-out barrage focused on Georgian villages, not on Georgian positions . . . That evening, the [Georgian] president gets information that a large Russian column is on the move. Later that evening, somebody sees those vehicles emerging from the Roki tunnel (into Georgia from Russia) . . . "

"The first thing [the Georgians] did . . . they tried to get through (South Ossetian capital) Tskhinvali, and that's when everybody says Saakashvili started the war. [Except] it wasn't about taking Ossetia back, it was about fighting their way through the town to get onto that road to slow the Russian advance."

Maybe the only lesson here is that Taiwan can't afford to lose the propaganda war as Georgia did. Russia's Ossetian catspaws started the war with Georgia, but Georgia was the one saddled with the blame. It was too psychologically challenging for the world to consider the alternative: that the Russian empire was again on the march in the near abroad, and the West now had to strengthen its security arrangements.

So instead, Olympic viewers contented themselves with platitudes about not tugging on Superman's cape. Then went back to watching lip-synching 6 year-olds and lots of pretty, fake, fireworks.

Postscript: To be fair, Michael J. Totten does quote someone as saying Georgia "provoked" Russia by trying to join NATO. Of course, other former Eastern-bloc countries are equally guilty of similar "provocations", including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states.

What Russia characterizes as provocations, I see as legitimate attempts by former satellite nations to break orbit from a tyrannical neighbor.

UPDATE (Dec 3/08): Saakashvili makes his case at the Wall Street Journal.

Out With The Old, In With The New

Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou declares 'State to State' theory of Taiwan-Chinese relations is dead. Replaces it with the 'Vassal to Master State' theory instead.

And Taiwan's China Post is positively BRIMMING with helpful tips for implementation. First up, get thee to a nunnery:

If Ma is truly pragmatic as he claims to be, he shouldn't have made a grand state visit to Latin America while Beijing was hosting the Olympic Games. There's no reason why he should attend the inaugural ceremony of a president in person, while the diplomatic tour is regarded in China as an unnecessary assertion of Taiwan's sovereignty and a serious challenge to Beijing's assertion that the island is a province or integral part of the People's Republic. It isn't conducive to the detente needed for dialogue across the Taiwan Strait that will put an end [to] the losing diplomatic war.

And second, humbly petition Taiwan's overlord for an act of benevolence:

As a matter of fact, Taipei
should talk with Beijing, not with Washington, to find out what it can
do to join or participate in the United Nations. With a nod from
Beijing, that world organization will gladly admit Taiwan right away.

Like the dame once said:

The folks atop the ladder
Are the ones the world adores
So boost me up my ladder, Kid
And I'll boost you . . . up yours

UPDATE (Sep 8/08): Former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui also objects to the new "Vassal to Master State" theory.:

“The people have elected Ma as their leader. But it does not authorize him to surrender Taiwan’s sovereignty."

Lame Excuse Of The Week

So you're a spokesman in Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, and the county's president issues a directive that no reporters will be allowed to cover this month's live-fire military drills. It's your job to go in front of the media and give a reason.

Now, I suppose you COULD tell the truth: The KMT government is deathly afraid that coverage will ruin the feel-good China vibe they've worked so hard to cultivate in Taiwan, and might furthermore make a few communist party Mandarins in Beijing scowl at 'em at the next KMT-CCP inter-party cooperation conference. (No telling WHAT might happen then.)

Obviously, telling the truth makes your boss, Mr. Ma, look all spineless and cowardly. So it's off the table.

Which leaves you with another option: Why not plead that the necessity of military secrecy makes coverage impossible? (Heck, some of us might even be disposed to view that one sympathetically.)

But no, that's out, too. The scheduled exercises we're talking about have been covered every year for a few years now. Exactly what's changed between this year and the last?

Well, well. If you can't tell the truth, and you can't tell a lie, you might as well get hep to the jive and deliver a rationalization that's fully in keeping with the spirit of the times:

The Ministry of National Defense has said it would not televise any part of the drill as Ma’s predecessors did. Nor would the ministry invite reporters or other guests to observe the drill, which the ministry said was to save energy in line with government policy. [emphasis added]

Reporters will be banned — because the government wants to SAVE THE PLANET.

Have You Ever Seen An Invisible Man?

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou during his recent trip to America:

Ma was seen in public just once during his [16 hour] stopover, when he waved to a group of Taiwanese expatriates waiting for him outside the Westin Bonaventure.

Coz every girl crazy 'bout a sharp dressed man . . .

Invisible man wearing suit, tie, and sunglasses

Ma was advised to just stay cool, and hope nobody would notice him.

(Image from NewEnglandLady.blogspot.com)

UPDATE: Heh.

i-1

Don’t Mess With Taiwan

"Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it;
those who fail to learn history correctly — why, they are
simply doomed."

– Gene Roddenberry's Andromeda

Taiwanese have NOTHING to be ashamed of if they surrender their sovereignty in tough economic times, said the China Post's Joe Hung a week ago, because even the never-say-die Texans of the Nineteenth Century did THAT:

Texas is an example of the economic woes compelling an independent, sovereign state to give up sovereignty. It declared independence in 1836 during a revolution against Mexico. The Republic of Texas had a very difficult 10-year life. Financing proved critical, and efforts to secure loans from foreign countries were unsuccessful. Protection against the raids from Mexico and occasional attacks by Indians required a mobile armed force, which further drained the meager coffer. As a consequence, the Texans voted for annexation by the United States; and the proposition, rejected twice by Washington was finally accepted in 1845. Texas ceased to be an independent, sovereign state in 1846 when the transfer of authority from the republic to the state of Texas took place.

Hung brings up the subject in the context of his dreams for a commonwealth with China, the bellicose nation that threatens Taiwan. Though perhaps it escaped his notice that Texas didn't vote for annexation TO the country that threatened it militarily; it voted for annexation to a country that would PROTECT it from same.

And so I have a counter-proposal for Hung and the editors of the China Post. If Taiwan's economy really IS that bad (which is to say, worse than in the immediate years following World War II when the KMT managed to drive it into the ground), then perhaps Taiwan should emulate the Texas of two centuries ago by forming a commonwealth (or even a confederation) with a nearby country that will protect it from China's designs.

(Of course, using the Texas analogy, the only logical choice for that role would have to be . . . Japan.)

"The Commonwealth of Asian Democracies." Has kind of a nice ring, doesn't it?

Building Commonwealths In The Air

Been back in Taiwan for a while now, and I see Joe Hung at the China Post is still flogging that old hobbyhorse of his, the idea of a unified Chinese-Taiwanese commonwealth:

Lien Chan, honorary chairman of the Kuomintang . . . is an advocate of a Chinese confederation,* an idea similar to the Chinese commonwealth which alone may be endorsed by the United States, Japan and other world powers. All of them want the status quo between Taiwan and China. Their national interests will be hurt if Chinese reunification takes place as Beijing now wants. Neither do they want Taiwan to get too closely associated with China. If Taiwan remains a dominion within the Chinese commonwealth, they will be able to best safeguard their respective national interests.

[…]

Peaceful unification or reunification is not impossible, if the example of the British Commonwealth of Nations is followed. Just as Great Britain made Canada a dominion in 1867, the People's Republic of China can give Taiwan dominion status now in preparation for a full-fledged Chinese commonwealth. The People's Republic and the Republic of China in Taiwan may be united in the name of the Chinese nation. They will be equal in status and in no way subordinate to the other, albeit the People's Republic may be the ex-officio head of the commonwealth. A dominion is recognized as a separate state entitled to have separate representation in the United Nations and other world organizations, to appoint its own ambassadors and to conclude its own treaties. At the same time, it is not considered to stand in the same relation to the People's Republic as foreign countries.

How ironic that Hung should make these arguments as the terrible events of 8/8/08 unfold before the world's eyes. And by 8/8/08 I speak not of the Genocide Games, but of the war between Russia and Georgia. For you see, the Georgians followed Hung's advice to the letter: fifteen years ago they humbled themselves, humbled themselves before a giant neighbor and joined the Commonwealth of Independent States.

And where did THAT get them? Did it get them all those sweet gauzy promises as outlined in the Charter of the Commonwealth of Independent States?

No. It got them Russian land grabs in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, that's where.** Apparently the wisdom of Lao Tzu ain't all that it's cracked up to be.***

And so the question I pose is threefold: Which nation does autocratic China more closely resemble, democratic Britain or autocratic Russia? And, given that resemblance, can we expect the character of a Chinese Commonwealth to be more like Britain's . . . or Russia's? And finally, can we all agree that the fate of Georgia within Russia's Commonwealth of "Independent" States is a fate that Taiwan would do well to avoid?

I've tried to debunk Hung's dangerous dreams of a Chinese Commonwealth on previous occasions (here and here). But I must admit that the War of 8/8/08 discredits them far more persuasively than my own humble efforts ever could.

* About the only thing I know about confederations is how remarkably unstable they tend to be. Within short order, confederations tend to either dissolve into their component states or centralize into federations instead. Indeed, the lifetime of most confederacies appears to consist of a span of less than ten years.

Given the inequalities of power within Lien's proposed confederation, the smart money would be on future centralization, however. Once Taiwan raises the hopes of Chinese unificationists by joining a Chinese Confederacy it would be well nigh impossible for a Taiwanese president to approach Beijing and say, "Hey, we gave it our best, but this just isn't working out. We'd like to negotiate a peaceful separation."

And so we see that the KMT's Lien Chan advocates little more than a face-saving Taiwanese surrender, followed by progressive involuntary absorption into the Chinese Empire.

** Some background explaining Russian provocations prior to 8/8/08 can be found here and here. Could a similar scenario play out someday in Taiwan? If a breakaway Kinmen Island attempted to reunify with China, would Beijing be all that reluctant in sending PLA "peacekeepers"? In issuing the island's inhabitants Chinese passports? In escalating military attacks on Taiwanese waters or even Taiwan proper from Kinmen, all the while denying those attacks or perhaps insisting that the Kinmenese were the ones responsible?

And lastly, how severe would Chinese attacks have to be before Taiwan was goaded into a military response of its own?

*** Hung quotes Lao Tzu as follows:

"And if a small kingdom humbles itself before a great kingdom, it shall win over that great kingdom," he teaches. "Thus," he concludes, "the one humbles itself in order to attain, the other attains because it is humble. If the great kingdom has no further desire than to bring men together and to nourish them, the small kingdom will have no further desire than to enter the service of the other. But in order that both may have their desire, the great one must learn humility."

Hung's message to Taiwan is that Beijing is generous and humble. And therefore, Taiwan must capitulate.

UPDATE: Oh, THIS just keeps getting better. Russia demands that Georgia be demilitarized.

UPDATE #2: Take this Commonwealth and shove it — President Saakashvili announces his intentions to take Georgia out of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and suggests other former Soviet Republics follow his lead. Hey, I'm sure Russia will be cool with that . . .

UPDATE #3: Why couldn't the Georgians have just let South Ossetia pass into Russian hands, if that was what the local population wanted? Certainly a question I've asked myself lately. Kat from Missouri explains how South Ossetia is sort of the Golan Heights of Georgia.

UPDATE #4: This is a few days old, but still worth the read if you've got the time. Who's Winning in Georgia and Who's Winning in Georgia #2.

UPDATE #5: A piece much more critical of Georgia.

UPDATE #6: And French sympathies are with . . . Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

UPDATE #7: "China’s Communist rulers, while basking in the glow of their Olympics bash, are surely checking the tea leaves for what this might presage about U.S. support for another U.S. ally: the democratic Republic of China on Taiwan. If the U.S. will not stand up to North Korea, will not stand up to Iran, will not stand up to Russia, then where will the U.S. stand up? What are the real rules of this New World Order?" Yeah, that's gonna make me sleep better at night.

UPDATE (Aug 14/08): Where the Kosovo analogy breaks down.

Can You Give Me A Discount?

Yesterday may have been the first day Chinese tourists could visit Taiwan via direct chartered flights, but who didn’t see THIS coming?

“Compared with trips to Europe, where tourists spend US$120 per night on average, several Chinese travel agencies have complained that our charges are too high,” Jack Lin (林健興), manager of the domestic tour department at Southeast Travel Service Co (東南旅行社), said yesterday.

I’m sure it doesn’t help your future bargaining position when you offer ‘extra-low introductory rates’, expecting you’ll be able to hike prices later:

Tour packages for the first wave of Chinese visitors to arrive in Taiwan via direct charter flights this weekend are worth 20-30 percent more than the selling prices [which is to say, they were sold 20-30% below cost], travel agencies said Thursday, expressing hopes their generous offers will be rewarded by good business from mainland Chinese tourists in the future.

Rather than generate goodwill, those cut-rates are only going to result in cut-throat bargaining sessions later on. (But you gave my uncle Chow a price that was 30% lower than this only two months ago! And that was during the peak tourism season! Why CAN’T you give me a better price today . . .)

Maybe there’s a lesson to be learned here for the Ma administration, regarding its similar eagerness to give away the store to Beijing in exchange for a few ephemeral moments of Sinic bonhomie.