Ever wonder what it’s gonna be like for KMT members the morning AFTER the vote’s been held to impeach President Chen? I mean, they’ve just spent an entire month in an anti-Chen delirium. Marching. Yelling. Encouraging their kids to throw eggs at Chen posters. Boy, it sure felt good.
But like all good things, it had to come to an end sometime. Chen’s party looked at the charges, and saw nine out of ten were political in nature. As for the remaining charge, corruption, there was no firm evidence that Chen was personally involved. Chen’s party held their ranks, and the KMT failed to get the two thirds vote necessary to remove him from office.
So now, after one incredible, dizzying month, comes the hangover. The consolation prize – toppling the cabinet – must look about as appealing as a bowlful of cold porridge. And like most hangovers, the most dominant feeling will be the one of regret.
The Chen haters will regret that they couldn’t bring down the president despite his low poll numbers. How could he survive? Didn’t the polls say he had only a 5.8% approval rating?
That, they did. ‘Cept the polls ALSO said the KMT would win the 2004 presidential election. Doncha hate it when life throws ya curve balls like that?
Personally, I can’t summon up much sympathy for the Chen haters, the guys who just a few months ago sought his removal for abolishing a defunct council which for the last seven years has had no meetings, no budget, and no members. No, my sympathy’s for the other guys, the guys in the party who hate graft, and truly believe that Chen’s guilty as sin.
Don’t laugh about the "hating graft" part. Not every KMT member’s corrupt. Sure, you can call them hypocritical, if you like. After all, the KMT has a LOT of ill-gotten assets. But if your old man left you a massive inheritance, how quickly would YOU give it all back if you learned that he had stolen most of it a long, long time ago?
Those are the guys right now who’re slapping their heads and muttering, "We shoulda listened to Ma!" (That would be Chairman Ma of the KMT: Ma Ying-jeou.) You see, Ma’s first instinct was the right one: Let’s wait until we have hard evidence that Chen himself is corrupt, THEN let’s move on to impeachment. If the KMT had waited and gotten that evidence, then Chen’s party would have deserted him. They would have deserted him, or they’d have been thrown out of office in the next election. No one’s going to risk their job defending a crook.
That approach would have required patience, however. Instead, the KMT listened to the counsel of fanatics like James Soong, who insisted on striking while the iron was hot. We’ve always hated Chen and everything he stands for, said Soong, but now the public has turned against him as well. The man’s got a 5.8% approval rating, for cryin’ out loud!
Evidence? We don’t need no stinkin’ evidence!
At that point, someone should’ve cleared his throat and announced that all of this was well and good, but why should Soong’s advice be preferred over Ma’s? When you think about it, Soong has lost not one, but TWO presidential elections to Chen, in 2000 and in 2004. Ma, on the other hand, actually BEAT Chen in a mayoral campaign back in 1996. Who on earth would take strategy lessons from a two-time loser instead of a proven winner?
The KMT, that’s who. Meanwhile Chairman Ma, sensing an immanent party revolt, switched positions. It was a terrible move for the country, but a terrific move for himself.*
Here’s why:
Suppose for a moment, just for a moment, that Chen really IS guilty. My gut feeling is that he’s just being railroaded by some pretty unpleasant people, but I confess to having a few doubts. Why did he say that his wife never directly received vouchers from the SOGO department store [as a bribe]? Was it Clintonesque parsing, or just an innocent slip of the tongue? The China Post naturally assumes the former, and for all I know, they may be right. But I would defy ANYONE to give a two hour long speech like the one he gave without making a few mistakes. Heck, I can’t talk for two MINUTES without some kind of flub.
(Just the other day, I met a group of Taiwanese acquaintances, including one by the name of "Joy." Now, all of us know another woman with the same name, so I asked them if they’d seen the OTHER "Joy" around. "You know," I said, "the THIN one.")
(Whoops. That’s not the way it was supposed to come out!)
Anyways, suppose Chen’s really guilty, but no one knows that for sure because the KMT was too lazy to do the hard work of proving it. As I said earlier, his party isn’t convinced of his guilt, so they stand behind him and he walks. That’s bad, but something even worse can happen later.
The absolute worst part of all this is that incriminating evidence could show up next week, and that evidence would no longer matter in any legal sense. As Ma said a month ago, there’s only one bullet in the chamber. There’s one, and only one, chance to impeach this president. An impeachment vote against a Taiwanese president can only be made once every three years, so if this attempt fails, then no more attempts are possible. (Chen is constitutionally obligated to step down at the end of his second term in two years.) As bad as it is for the guilty to go unpunished, I regard it as much worse for the PROVABLY guilty to go unpunished. This impeachment bid, which Ma said was irresponsible but went along with anyway, now makes the latter an unfortunate possibility.
Now, let’s assume something else. I’ve considered the possibility of Chen being guilty, so let’s now consider the opposite. Suppose Chen is innocent, as I believe him to be. The impeachment bid fails, and an innocent president keeps his job. No harm done, right?
Wrong. There are opportunity costs involved in the impeachment effort, legislative roads not taken that might have been more productive. Hurricane season is upon us, and still a flood control bill languishes. An innocent president may indeed walk, but innocent Taiwanese may soon end up swimming or drowning. Their houses may be deprived of electricity, or buried entirely by suffocating mud. Those are not insignificant costs for the public to wind up paying for this little foregone conclusion.
Finally, there is one other harmful effect that could potentially happen. A month ago, a member of James Soong’s People First Party suggested that the threat of a presidential impeachment was a good thing, because it gave an incentive for the president’s family and associates to walk the straight and narrow. Much as I disapprove of the PFP’s capitulationist policies towards China, I have to admit that I admired that legislator’s thoughts on deterring corruption. Sadly however, he hadn’t followed this avenue of thought to it’s logical conclusion. If he had, I believe he would have come out against the impeachment vote.
Think on it: If someone trains "a gun with one bullet" on you, you have a powerful incentive to tread softly. If he fires and misses, that incentive instantly vanishes and you breathe a sigh of relief.
Likewise with the impeachment bid. Hang a legal Sword of Damocles over Chen’s head, and those close to him have a powerful incentive to behave themselves. Let it fall harmlessly, and that incentive disappears. In fact, a perverse incentive has just been created. My man Chen’s untouchable from now on, some folks might reason, so why shouldn’t I get mine?
Thus a measure intended to punish corruption, might, paradoxically, end up encouraging it.
* I believe Ma’s change of heart on the impeachment issue ends up strengthening his leadership role in the KMT. For as soon as impeachment fails, his initial circumspection will be lauded.
"If only we had listened to the wise leadership of our beloved Chairman…" moderates will sigh, as they ponder what might have been had they had waited to get the full evidence.
The hawks might say that too through gritted teeth, but they too, will find Ma more attractive now. He’s just proven that he’s a team player, not some kind of Achilles pouting in his tent when he doesn’t get his way. Alright, so he was a little reluctant to embrace the impeachment drive, but that can be forgiven. What matters is that he put his game face on, and gave it 110%, despite his initial reservations.
At the end of the day, the entire episode leaves moderates admiring Ma.
And hawks? Right now, they LOVE the guy.
N.B. Since this was written BEFORE the actual vote was taken, I don’t actually KNOW that the impeachment will fail. Seems a pretty safe guess, though.
UPDATE (June 27/06): Came home this evening, and saw a somber Ma Ying-jeou on TV saying something in Mandarin. Take it that means the impeachment failed.
The View from Taiwan confirms what we all expected. While I’m happy that Chen gets to keep his job, I’m even happier that I don’t have to hit the delete button on this post.
Me, selfish? You’d better believe it!
UPDATE #2 (Jun 27/06): I originally wrote that polls gave Chen an approval rating of 20%, but later remembered that there was one poll where his numbers were a LOT lower. Sure enough, this poll gave him an approval rating of 5.8%. The number has been corrected in the post.
UPDATE (June 28/06): The English-language media here gave me the impression that impeachment could only be attempted once every three years. One of President Chen’s enemies says otherwise:
Although the proposal to recall the president failed to pass, People First Party (PFP) legislators yesterday immediately drafted a motion to topple the Cabinet, with party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) saying they would push for a another recall motion after a new legislature is convened. [Emphasis added]
"As long as the Cabinet dissolution plan doesn’t fail, it is certain that [a second] motion to recall the president will succeed," Soong told people before ending a sit-in outside the legislature.
I take it as a given that Soong understands the rules for presidential recalls better than I do. Still, it really looks like he’s counting his chickens before they hatch. Before his little plan can come to fruition, he has to topple the cabinet, Chen has to dissolve the legislature, and Chen’s enemies have to pick up 2/3rds of the seats in the new legislature.
Problem is, the KMT hasn’t committed itself to that course of action yet.
Even if they do sign on and topple the cabinet, President Chen would have to be so stupid as to dissolve the legislature without taking a look at the polls first. The KMT and its allies need to hold 2/3rds of the seats for an impeachment / recall to succeed, but if Chen believes they’ll pick up that many seats, there’s no way he’ll dissolve the legislature.
Chen will only dissolve the legislature if he thinks it’ll be advantageous for him to do so. Otherwise, he simply installs a new premier and cabinet.
